Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results

Desmond Mwembe; Lizwe Sibanda; Ndava Constantine Mupondo

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results

Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 3)

Received: 10 March 2015 Accepted: 27 March 2015 Published: 7 April 2015

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Abstract

The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.

Published in	American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
Page(s)	99-111
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Betting Strategy, Soccer, Home-Ground Advantage, Scoring Intensities, Fixed-Odds

References

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APA Style

Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo. (2015). Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(3), 99-111. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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ACS Style

Desmond Mwembe; Lizwe Sibanda; Ndava Constantine Mupondo. Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2015, 4(3), 99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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AMA Style

Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo. Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2015;4(3):99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15,
  author = {Desmond Mwembe and Lizwe Sibanda and Ndava Constantine Mupondo},
  title = {Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results},
  journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
  volume = {4},
  number = {3},
  pages = {99-111},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20150403.15},
  abstract = {The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.},
 year = {2015}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results
AU  - Desmond Mwembe
AU  - Lizwe Sibanda
AU  - Ndava Constantine Mupondo
Y1  - 2015/04/07
PY  - 2015
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DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
SP  - 99
EP  - 111
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9006
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
AB  - The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.
VL  - 4
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Desmond Mwembe

National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Lizwe Sibanda

National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Ndava Constantine Mupondo

National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

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APA Style

Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo. (2015). Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(3), 99-111. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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ACS Style

Desmond Mwembe; Lizwe Sibanda; Ndava Constantine Mupondo. Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2015, 4(3), 99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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AMA Style

Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo. Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2015;4(3):99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15,
  author = {Desmond Mwembe and Lizwe Sibanda and Ndava Constantine Mupondo},
  title = {Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results},
  journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
  volume = {4},
  number = {3},
  pages = {99-111},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20150403.15},
  abstract = {The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.},
 year = {2015}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results
AU  - Desmond Mwembe
AU  - Lizwe Sibanda
AU  - Ndava Constantine Mupondo
Y1  - 2015/04/07
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
SP  - 99
EP  - 111
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9006
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
AB  - The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.
VL  - 4
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download